Abraham gets the ultimate “Trust Fall” from God. Faith level: legendary. Family camping trip: unforgettable. Meanwhile…Outside the Bible.
THE SPECULATIVE HISTORY HYPOTHESIS: EVIDENCE, INTERPRETATION, AND NARRATIVE CONSTRUCTION IN ANCIENT HISTORIOGRAPHY
Ancient historical narratives are often presented with a level of confidence that exceeds the evidentiary foundations upon which they rest. This paper proposes the Speculative History Hypothesis, which holds that significant portions of what is treated as established historical knowledge are the result of interpretive speculation normalized through repetition and narrative authority. The hypothesis does not deny the occurrence of historical events, but offers a framework for distinguishing between evidentiary support and interpretive reconstruction. Using Herodotus as a methodological primer, this study develops a tiered evidentiary model and applies it to Roman historiography, with particular focus on the Third Servile War. A probabilistic reassessment of Spartacus illustrates how narrative density can obscure uncertainty. An addendum addresses the persistence of historical uncertainty even within technologically advanced societies. 1. INTRODUCTION Ancient history is frequ...
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